Date of Award

2-28-2021

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

Department

Department of Mathematics

First Advisor

Olcay Akman

Abstract

Global warming is radically changing aspects of the Earth. As scientists continue to research the effects, the ramifications of melting permafrost is coming to light. We build off of a previously existing Anthrax model in the hopes to include climate change as a factor in Anthrax spread. Chapter II develops a simplified version of an Anthrax model. Parameters for the model are found by using previous research and eigenvalues are analyzed in order to find thresholds and equilibria. Chapter III consider the general solutions of the model through eigenvalues and eigenvectors. This model is then extended to include a parameter that signifies the melting of permafrost to reveal frozen carcasses in Chapter IV. As this parameter increases, the resulting number of anthrax cases which lead to death increases. The final chapter extends the thawing period of permafrost by starting the melting point in the year at an earlier date. Data has shown that in previous decades, the active layer of permafrost began to melt around June 1st. As global temperatures increase, the permafrost is beginning to melt earlier. Our figures display the change this has on Anthrax spread. The goal is to understand how severe the effects of climate change could be on the reemergence of Anthrax.

Comments

Imported from Kolakowski_ilstu_0092N_11860.pdf

DOI

https://doi.org/10.30707/ETD2021.20210719070603178681.60

Additional Files
AnthraxModelC.R (1 kB)

Page Count

35

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