Graduation Term
Spring 2025
Degree Name
Master of Science (MS)
Department
Department of Politics and Government: Political Science
Committee Chair
LJ Zigerell
Committee Member
Towhid Iqram Mahmood
Abstract
Brazil’s democratic transition in 1985 marked a pivotal moment in its political and economic history. Following 21 years of military rule, the transition introduced sweeping political reforms amidst significant economic instability. This study examines the causal impact of democratization on Brazil’s economic trajectory using the Synthetic Control Method (SCM). By constructing a synthetic counterfactual, this research estimates the economic effects of democratization. The findings suggest a negative impact of democratization on the per capita GDP of Brazil, amounting to an average annual reduction of approximately $887 per year during 15 years following the democratization. However, this effect is not statistically significant. This study contributes to the nuanced debate about the relationship between governance and economic growth and provides a replicable framework for analyzing similar political transitions through causal inference.
Access Type
Thesis-Open Access
Recommended Citation
Khurshid, Mohammad Saqlain, "Assessing Brazil’s Economic Trajectory Post Democracy: A Synthetic Control Approach to the 1985 Transition" (2025). Theses and Dissertations. 2075.
https://ir.library.illinoisstate.edu/etd/2075
